Monday, May 15, 2023

Monday Morning Dairy Market Update - Milk Futures Show Continued Pressure

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: Steady to 5 Lower
Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed
Butter Futures: Steady to 1 Lower

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: Mixed
Soybean Futures: 7 to 10 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures: $3 to $6 Higher
Wheat Futures: 12 to 15 Higher

MILK:

Overnight trading activity points to further weakness. Traders are bearish on the market, seeing no change in market fundamentals based on the current pattern. Underlying cash prices have been weakening with sufficient supply available, leaving buyers unaggressive. Milk production across the country continues to increase in most areas as spring flush continues. Planting progress continues at a strong pace which could result in plentiful feed supplies at lower prices. Farm income is being squeezed, which may result in an increase of culling as farmers move low-producing cows at strong cull cow prices. Retail prices increased over last year -- when we had record high milk prices. Increased costs of getting products to consumers have attributed to the price discrepancy.

CHEESE:

Buyers of cheese continue to hold back placing lower bids at the beginning of spot trading. This sets the tone for the trading period. Sellers are not holding back for higher prices but would rather move product instead of building plant inventory. There is no concern over a tight market.

BUTTER:

The expectation is for the price to remain in a range this week and for an extended period. Price remaining in a tight price range for this long sets a record. Buyers and sellers remain comfortable with supply and continue to do business without the need to become aggressive.




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