MILK
Class III milk futures should have closed under pressure due to the decline of cheese prices in the spot market. However, traders seemed to think prices were low enough and decided to either take profit on short positions or buy into the market. Class III futures closed mostly higher with May and June posting double-digit gains. This will make it interesting for overnight trade and trading activity leading up to the spot market tomorrow. Milk production is slowly improving as spring flush is beginning in many areas while a few areas have already been in spring flush. If current milk futures prices come to fruition, there could be an increase of culling taking place due to high cull cow prices. If this were to develop over a period of a few months, it could turn the psychology of the market bullish like early last year. However, prices are not likely to increase as much as they had early last year, but it could develop a concern over tighter milk supply. USDA does not think milk production will decrease as they estimated production to be 200 million pounds higher than their March estimate on the World Agricultural Supply and Demand report. The current estimate is for milk output to reach 228.7 billion pounds. This would be 2.5 billion pounds above 2022. They estimate exports will slow as exports on a fat basis use would total 12.2 billion pounds, down 800 million pounds from March and 1.2 billion pounds below 2022. Exports on a skim-solids basis are estimated at 50.7 billion pounds, down 1.2 billion pounds from March and down 1.8 billion pounds from last year. The Class III average milk price was raised 70 cents from March to $18.25. The average Class IV price was reduced 20 cents to $18.10. The All-milk price was raised 20 cents from April to an average of $20.65.
AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES
| 3 Month: | $18.23 |
| 6 Month: | $18.65 |
| 9 Month: | $18.90 |
| 12 Month: | $18.86 |
CHEESE
The average cheese price is now estimated at $1.8550 for this year according to the World Agricultural Supply and Demand report released today. This is an increase of 4.50 cents from the March estimate. Dry whey price was raised 3.50 cents to an average of 42.50 cents for this year. It was positive to see these prices raised, but they are quite a bit lower than last year. Cheese price is 25.50 cents lower with dry whey price 18 cents lower.
BUTTER
USDA estimates the average butter price this year at $2.42, up 8.50 cents from March, but down 44.50 cents per pound from 2022. Nonfat dry milk price was reduced 6.50 cents averaging 1.1650. This is 52 cents below a year ago.
OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY
May corn declined 3 cents closing at $6.51. May soybeans gained 10 cents closing at $14.9725 with May soybean meal up $7.10 per ton closing at $457.80. May wheat declined 4.50 cents ending at 46.74. April live cattle gained $0.92 closing at $172.30. The Dow gained 98 points closing at 33,685 while the Nasdaq declined 52 points closing at 12,032.
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