Thursday, April 20, 2023

Thursday Morning Dairy Market Update - Traders Focus on Barrel Strength

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: 4 to 8 Higher
Class IV Milk Futures: 5 to 10 Higher
Butter Futures: Steady to 1 Higher

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 3 to 5 Lower
Soybean Futures: 8 to 10 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures: $2 to $4 Lower
Wheat Futures: 7 to 9 Lower

MILK:

The milk production report Wednesday showed both positive and negative numbers. The positive was that milk production continues to decrease in relation to a year ago. January production was 1.4% higher than a year ago, February was 1.1% higher, and March was 0.5% higher. The negative aspect of the report was that cow numbers increased 6,000 head from February. This put the nation's dairy herd at 9.435 million head, the highest number since August 2021. This will keep sufficient milk available to the market. Overnight trading activity points to higher trade early Thursday as there is anticipation barrel cheese price may continue to see strong buyer interest.

CHEESE:

Even though some cheese plants indicate they are barely keeping up with demand, there is sufficient cheese available. USDA will release the March Cold Storage report next week on Tuesday. I estimate cheese inventory will show some increase. Trading activity on the spot market has increased over the past weeks with barrels showing the most activity with buyers willing to pick up what sellers bring to the market.

BUTTER:

Price is near the top end of the trading range which may limit further upside price movement. Buyers and sellers are content doing business at this level. Current supply and active churning should keep the market adequately supplied.




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