Thursday, April 13, 2023

Thursday Morning Dairy Market Update - Milk Futures Show Further Strength

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: 5 to 12 Higher
Class IV Milk Futures: 5 to 10 Higher
Butter Futures: 1 to 2 Higher

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: Steady to 2 Higher
Soybean Futures: 7 to 10 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures: $1 to $2 Higher
Wheat Futures: 3 to 5 Lower

MILK:

Class III milk futures continued to push higher as some traders might be liquidating previous sold positions while others are buying into the market, believing cheese prices may be near a bottom. This could bring buyers back into the spot market more aggressively as they take advantage of the low prices to increase their ownership of cheese. The current futures price pattern seems to be similar to what took place in March. They are anticipating a rebound in cash. With increasing milk receipts at the plant level as spring flush unfolds, cheese prices may move into a sideways trading pattern in the near term. Cull cow prices are strong but not strong enough to result in a decrease in milk cow numbers. The April contract is basically priced and adjusted to the weekly AMS prices released late Wednesday.

CHEESE:

Spot trading activity has been active as buyers have been looking to increase ownership of product. However, sellers have also been willing to move cheese, which has kept prices from increasing. There could be a bounce if sellers hold back, and buyers want to purchase what they can at lower prices. This would cause the market to move up as buyers would try to outbid each other to obtain product.

BUTTER:

Price may increase further and move to the top of the trading range, but upside will be limited. Butter output is meeting demand and building inventory. The more inventory increases now, the less price will increase later in the year. Buyers have already done some forward contracting for the third quarter of the year.




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