Thursday, April 6, 2023

Thursday Morning Dairy Market Update - Further Weakness Possible

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: 4 to 8 Lower
Class IV Milk Futures: 5 to 10 Lower
Butter Futures: Steady to 1 Lower

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 2 to 4 Lower
Soybean Futures: 4 to 8 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures: Steady to $1 Lower
Wheat Futures: 1 to 2 Lower

MILK:

It is interesting that April Class III milk futures are holding as well as they have been despite the decline of cheese prices. The contract has about another week or two to be influenced by underlying cash, but held Wednesday despite the weakness of cheese. New Zealand's large co-op, Fonterra, cut its milk price forecast this year, citing China demand for whole milk powder has not returned to expected levels and U.S milk production is higher and heading into spring flush. Lower prices have been reflected in the Global Dairy Trade auction prices. Overnight Class III futures indicate lower trade with traders cautious over spot price strength until they see it. Markets will be closed Friday in observance of Good Friday.

CHEESE:

There had been hope the weakness of cheese would have run its course with prices low enough for buyers to step up more aggressively. Blocks may revisit the low on March 10 at $1.78 before buyers may turn more aggressive. More milk will be available for manufacturing over the next few days as schools are closed.

BUTTER:

Churning activity remains strong with many plants not shutting down through Easter as they need to utilize heavy cream supply. Cream supply is expected to tighten as more is used for ice cream manufacturing. However, there was an unexpected increase in supply over the past week, mainly in the Central region. There is expectation for further price weakness in the near term.




Friday Midday Dairy Market Summary - Butter and Cheese Prices Bounce

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