Monday, April 24, 2023

Monday Morning Dairy Market Update - Not Much Volatility Expected

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 1 to 4 Lower
Soybean Futures: Mixed
Soybean Meal Futures: $1 to $2 Higher
Wheat Futures: 1 to 3 Higher

MILK:

Traders did not tip their hand to indicate which way they think the market will go Monday. Fundamentals have not changed much as milk production continues to slowly improve through spring flush. Weather has been good for cow comfort, improving feed efficiency. Underlying cash markets have moved within a range, leaving traders mainly taking short-term positions lacking any indication of a trend. Farms did not increase culling in March but rather added cows. This may change due to lower milk prices as farms take advantage of high cull cow prices to supplement income by removing lower producing cows. Farms may have a limited desire to increase cow numbers in the near term. Mixed trading activity is likely ahead of spot trading.

CHEESE:

Cheese prices were mixed for the week with blocks lower and barrels higher. The same could hold true for this week as prices seem to remain choppy. Cheese demand is variable depending on variety and location. Buyers of cheese have been able to increase ownership without having to chase the market.

BUTTER:

There likely will be little change in the market this week. Buyers and sellers are comfortable at the current price range. Fundamentals are stable with contracting being done for the third quarter at reasonable prices. Cream supply is sufficient to keep churns active. 




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