Friday, April 28, 2023

Friday Morning Dairy Market Update - Uncertain Overnight Trade

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed
Butter Futures:a Steady to 1 Higher

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: Mixed
Soybean Futures: 5 to 10 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures: $2 to $3 Higher
Wheat Futures: 1 to 2 Higher

MILK:

Class III futures price increases may be short-lived according to overnight trading activity. Traders seem to think the strength of underlying cash may not last very long. This is likely due to blocks not being able to hold their highs Thursday and the fact that sellers of cheese were active and did not step back from the market. There has been little fundamental change to the market with milk production steadily increasing in much of the country as spring flush continues. The strong milk prices of last year have allowed many to prepay things for this year, putting them in a better position through a period of low milk prices. This may delay the increased culling that could be expected due to low milk prices. The pattern of late 2021 may not unfold as quickly as it did at that time. USDA will release the March Agricultural Prices report Friday providing price used to calculate the income over feed for the month for the Dairy Margin Coverage program.

CHEESE:

Cheese that was offered on the spot market Thursday was purchased leaving no uncovered offers at the close. This could allow for higher cash prices as buyers may again be aggressive to purchase cheese at current low prices. There has been a lot of cheese traded over the past few weeks, possibly allowing sellers to hold back and hold for higher prices.

BUTTER:

Cream supply is tightening from the plentiful supply it had been. However, there is sufficient supplies available for active churning schedules. There has been a report that a few plants have been selling some extra cream due to increasing cream price. Spot price may remain sideways for now.



August Milk Production in the United States down 0.1 Percent

August Milk Production up 0.1 Percent          Milk production in the 24 major States during August totaled 18.1 billion pounds, up 0.1 perc...