Monday, March 27, 2023

Monday Morning Dairy Market Update - Further Strength in Overnight Trade

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: 4 to 8 Higher
Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: Steady to 3 Lower
Soybean Futures: 3 to 5 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures: Steady to $1 Higher
Wheat Futures: 4 to 6 Lower

MILK:

The market moved through the reports last week without seeing pressure on Class III futures, but the same cannot be said for Class IV futures. Class IV contracts have been under pressure as the weakness of butter and nonfat dry milk dimmed the price outlook. On the other hand, Class III futures pushed higher due to the strength of block cheese as barrel cheese only gained 0.25 cent last week. The fact that inventory did not increase in February provides some support under the market. Class III milk futures have increased substantially over the past three weeks with April gaining about $2.50 and back to the highest level since December. Some caution may be exercised as the market nearly always tends to fall faster than it increases, but that remains to be seen.

CHEESE:

Cheese prices have been rising as buyers turned more aggressive. The inventory of cheese is large, but the demand is for fresh cheese and that is what is driving prices higher. Demand needs to be met and inventory needs to be replenished, leaving buyers looking for more and coming to the spot market. Buyers may remain aggressive Monday.

BUTTER:

Growing inventory and sufficient production to meet demand keeps pressure on the market. Maybe a better assessment may be that it will limit upside potential. Churning is active, but cream supply tightened due to greater demand from increasing ice cream manufacturing. The market seems to be in balance at present




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