Monday, March 20, 2023

Monday Morning Dairy Market Update - February Milk Production Report Today

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 4 to 6 Lower
Soybean Futures: 8 to 11 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures: $2 to $3 Lower
Wheat Futures: 8 to 10 Lower

MILK:

Last week showed strong gains in Class III futures while Class IV futures showed little change. Strong gains in cheese prices triggered buying in Class III futures, but the May contract above $19.00. Some selling pressure was evident overnight with April showing most of the activity. USDA will release the February Milk Production report Monday afternoon, which may temper some of the trading activity today. However, the movement of the spot market will dictate further price direction. I estimate milk production to be 1.0% above a year ago with cow numbers down 2,000 head from January. Milk production per cow should remain strong.

CHEESE:

Cheese prices have had an exceptional run the past two weeks with little change in market fundamentals. The past two times we saw strength of this magnitude over a short period of time, prices fell faster than they went up. We certainly hope this is not the case this time, but that is the general pattern of all markets. Milk futures should be mixed until direction is seen from the cash market and the milk production report.

BUTTER:

Not much movement is expected for butter. Buyers and sellers are comfortable at the current price with business being done for immediate demand as well as contracting for later demand. Churning schedules are active with sufficient supply to meet demand 




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