Friday, March 24, 2023

Friday Morning Dairy Market Update - Spot Trading Will Be Focus

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: Steady to 5 lower
Class IV Milk Futures: Steady to 5 Lower
Butter Futures: 1 to 2 Lower

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: Mixed
Soybean Futures: 6 to 10 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures: $3 to $4 Lower
Wheat Futures: 12 to 14 Lower

MILK:

Traders now have the Milk Production, Cold Storage, and Livestock Slaughter report numbers to assess and determine the impact these will have on the market. Cheese prices may have risen too far, too fast; but until buyer interest slows, further gains may be possible. April futures neared $20.00 Thursday but fell short and are currently seeing some pressure. Dairy cattle slaughter in February indicates farms are not culling cows to any great extent, which will keep milk production strong for the time being. Demand for cheese is holding well as more milk being available for manufacturing is still not able to rebuild inventory above year earlier levels. It seems the problem may lie with a lower workforce reducing the ability of plants to increase production. That may be a reason spot milk prices have been so low for so long. Milk is available with plants not able to handle it. If so, this may be a greater problem as we move through spring flush.

CHEESE:

The inability of cheese inventory to grow in February indicates demand remains good with buyers turning to the spot market to get what they need to fill fresh cheese demand. Cheese inventory remains large but there has not been seasonal growth, which influences the market. The recent strong price increase has not yet reached the threshold of buyers.

BUTTER:

With growing butter inventory, buyers are not concerned over supply. More demand for cream is coming from ice cream manufacturers as they gear up for the summer. However, cream supply remains sufficient to keep churning active. Price is expected to remain within a range.




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