Thursday, February 16, 2023

Thursday Morning Dairy Market Update - Further Weakness of Butter Expected

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures: 5 to 10 Lower
Butter Futures: 1 to 2 Lower

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 1 to 2 Lower
Soybean Futures: 2 to 5 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures: $1 to $2 Lower
Wheat Futures: 3 to 5 Lower

MILK:

Milk futures have the potential to slip lower as underlying cash prices show further weakness. However, the choppy nature of the market keeps traders guessing. Sometimes when underlying cash moves lower, futures move higher and vice versa. With the selling pressure we have seen the past few days, it is possible milk futures may bounce Thursday. Overnight trade showed activity only in March Class III futures with 35 contracts traded. Price did trade 5 cents lower but moved back to steady by early morning. Someone learned a hard lesson Wednesday in Class IV trading with one contract traded $1.02 lower at one point. Someone learned that placing market orders or a stop order is not the activity to employ in a thinly traded market.

CHEESE:

The weakness of cheese Wednesday seems to indicate prices are just not yet ready to trend higher. Barrels moved to the lowest level since Nov. 29, 2021, even though there was good activity during spot trading. Manufacturers in some areas will have more milk available next week as some schools will be closed for much of the week while some will be closed only on President's Day. Cheese production remains strong.

BUTTER:

The weakness of spot butter Wednesday after three weeks of steady to higher prices may move buyers to the sidelines, waiting to see how aggressive sellers might be. Buying interest may have pushed price higher than current fundamentals would support, leaving the market vulnerable for a retracement. Supply is readily available for demand with inventory increasing.




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