Wednesday, January 25, 2023

Thursday Morning Dairy Update - Milk Futures to Show Early Strength

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures:5 to 10 Higher
Class IV Milk Futures:Steady to 5 Higher
Butter Futures:Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures:1 to 3 Higher
Soybean Futures:5 to 8 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures:$1 to $3 Higher
Wheat Futures:2 to 4 Higher

MILK:

The bullish implication of the December Milk Production report could support milk futures until underlying cash shows direction. The decrease in cow numbers from November was a surprise indicating heavier culling is already taking place likely due to high feed prices. The December Livestock Slaughter report showed an increase in slaughter but at a lower level than a year earlier. It is difficult to predict how this will affect underlying cash buying today or in the near term due to the reports yesterday being for the month of December with the milk and dairy products already absorbed into the market. Cash buyers and sellers may not necessarily do business based on a report or technical trading activity.

CHEESE:

It is difficult to anticipate whether cheese prices fell enough to increase the interest of buyers today. Blocks did bounce off their lows which could cause sellers to hold back today waiting to see if buyers may be more aggressive. However, the recent bounce of cheese prices was not able to exceed the level of the previous bounce.

BUTTER:

The December Cold Storage report was somewhat bearish for butter with inventory for the year ending 9 percent higher than the previous year. Inventory increasing in December is not a usual event. It does happen but inventory generally declines. Spot butter is likely to see further weakness.



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