Monday, January 30, 2023

Monday Morning Dairy Market Update - Mixed Overnight Trade Shows Uncertainty

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 2 to 4 Higher
Soybean Futures: 14 to 18 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures: $3 to $6 Higher
Wheat Futures: 5 to 7 Higher

MILK:

Milk futures are struggling with the uncertainty of underlying cash prices. Even though there are price bounces, futures have been trending lower. The milk production report was thought to increase the longer-term buying interest in futures or to increase some buying of cheese or butter for later demand, but that so far has not been the case. Milk production still is holding above a year ago with bottling and manufacturing demand being met without difficulty. USDA will release the December Agricultural Prices report Tuesday, but it is not expected to show an income over feed below the payment trigger level of $9.50 under the Dairy Margin Coverage program.

CHEESE:

The weakness of barrel cheese Friday moved the block/barrel spread to 40.75 cents, which may be a record or near-record difference. What is interesting is that there were 34 loads of barrels traded on the spot market last week with buying interest unable to move price higher. Manufacturers want to move product.

BUTTER:

Price lost ground last week on limited trading activity. This does not bode well for the market. Churning is active with cream supply plentiful. Buyers see no reason to be concerned over supply and are limiting forward contracting activity. Price is anticipated to erode further in the near term.




Wednesday Closing Dairy Market Update - Milk, Cheese Trading Strong; March Dairy Exports Decline

MILK Milk production is mixed across the country with a few areas moving past the spring flush to see production holding steady. Oth...