Tuesday, December 13, 2022

Tuesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Spot Prices May Show Further Weakness

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 1 to 3 Higher
Soybean Futures: 4 to 6 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures: $2 to $3 Higher
Wheat Futures: 6 to 9 Higher

MILK:

Milk futures continue to trend lower. Underlying cash prices are reflecting slower demand. Milk production is steady to slowly increasing depending on the area. Milk production per cow is increasing with cow numbers above a year ago. Demand for dairy into next year is expected to be lower as consumers grapple with inflation and higher food prices. The Consumer Price Index will be released Tuesday morning and will have an influence on what the Federal Reserve does during their meeting today and Wednesday. Interest rates are expected to be raised another 0.75%. This may impact dairy demand more than what was earlier anticipated. Rabobank estimates global dairy demand to trend lower in the near term.

CHEESE:

Spot cheese prices have been at these levels and lower before over the past few months and have been able to rebound. It may be more difficult this time due to the time of year with holiday buying mostly accomplished and first quarter demand generally lower. Cheese production has been increasing, resulting in more being available to the market.

BUTTER:

The recent whipsaw price activity of the market may move some traders to the sidelines, which could increase daily volatility due to the lack of traders. However, price will move in reference to underlying cash and the strength of that seems to be in question. Overall, price is expected to decline as the end of the year approaches.



Tuesday Midday Dairy Market Summary - Dry Whey Sets a New High for the Year

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY: CORN: 6 Lower SOYBEANS: 4 Higher SOYBEAN MEAL: ...