Thursday, December 22, 2022

Thursday Morning Dairy Market Update - Price Weakness Continues

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: 5 to 10 Lower
Class IV Milk Futures: 5 to 10 Lower
Butter Futures: 1 to 2 Lower

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 1 to 2 Higher
Soybean Futures: Mixed
Soybean Meal Futures: Mixed
Wheat Futures: 2 to 4 Higher

MILK:

There seems to be little to get excited about in the daily markets. Buyers are not aggressive in the cash market as reduced demand is seen in the near term. Schools are closing for nearly two weeks moving more milk to manufacturing and reducing spot milk prices. Plants will have plentiful milk supplies for manufacturing. Components have been better than last year, improving cheese yields. The winter storm will have some impact on milk production and milk movement but that will be temporary and is not expected to impact overall supply. Class III milk futures have seen extreme pressure recently pushing January through April milk prices below $19.00. February is nearly at the $18.00 level and a price not seen in over a year. Overnight trade points to further weakness Thursday.

CHEESE:

The increase of spot cheese prices Wednesday is being viewed by the trade as a temporary bounce. Cheese buyers are only purchasing for near-term needs and not to increase ownership for uncertain upcoming demand. Slowing demand will result in increasing inventory. USDA will release the November Cold Storage report Thursday, which is expected to show a decrease of inventory from October but higher inventory than a year ago.

BUTTER:

One must wonder where butter price will settle out and find support. The decline of 38 cents this week will be difficult to recover at this time of year. Buyers have seen the weakness and have stepped back in anticipation of further weakness. The current price may be attractive, but buyers may continue to purchase on an as-needed basis for a few weeks.




Monday Closing Dairy Market Update - October Cheese and Butter Inventories Declined

MILK: Traders were uncertain as to how to interpret the moving of spot prices today. Pressure was put on Class III futures after spo...