Monday, December 19, 2022

Monday Morning Dairy Market Update - Cautious Trading Ahead of Cash

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: Steady to 5 Lower
Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 3 to 4 Lower
Soybean Futures: 7 to 10 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures: $7 to $9 Lower
Wheat Futures: 1 to 3 Higher

MILK:

Milk futures were unable to hold gains last week and may have a difficult time finding buying support prior to spot trading today. The large drop of block cheese on Friday may keep bullish traders on the sidelines. With milk production rolling along and holiday demand being met, it will be up to ongoing demand to carry the baton. Right now, demand seems to be holding well and may continue that way if inflation eases and consumer confidence increases. USDA will release the November Milk Production report this afternoon. I estimate milk production to be up 1.0 percent from a year ago with cow numbers up 3,000 head from October.

CHEESE:

It is possible cheese buyers may step in during spot trading today due to the large decline of prices on Friday. However, the opposite could be true as the weakness could send them to the sidelines waiting to see how aggressive sellers will be. Inventory is expected to build into next year as production is strong and demand may slow. Buyers of cheese may begin to rebuild aging programs on price weakness.

BUTTER:

Price continues to hold well as holiday orders have been filled and ongoing buying is taking place for first quarter anticipated demand. Churning has been more active, and inventory may improve but stocks will close out the year quite a bit lower than last year.




Monday Closing Dairy Market Update - October Cheese and Butter Inventories Declined

MILK: Traders were uncertain as to how to interpret the moving of spot prices today. Pressure was put on Class III futures after spo...