Friday, December 23, 2022

Friday Morning Dairy Market Update - Traders Maintain Bearish Outlook

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures: Steady to 5 Lower
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 2 to 4 Higher
Soybean Futures: 3 to 5 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures: $1 to $2 Higher
Wheat Futures: 5 to 7 Higher

MILK:

Not much trading activity is expected ahead of spot trading. The strength of cheese prices over the past two days only influenced nearby Class III contracts as traders think it will be temporary and they remain overall bearish to the market. Futures are not showing prices above $20.00 until September of next year. There is little fundamental reason for milk prices to see much strength in the near term. Holiday demand is finished with the market looking ahead to the first quarter of 2023. Milk production is expected to remain strong with domestic demand being the real concern. Schools are closed for the holidays, putting more milk on the market for manufacturing, with spot milk in the Central region being offered as much as $10.00 below class. This is not usual but lower than anticipated this year.

CHEESE:

Prices have increased over the past two days, which makes it ready for a setback as sellers may try to take advantage of the bounce of prices. Buyers are purchasing on an as-needed basis rather than having interest in gaining ownership for expected demand. The November Cold Storage report was neutral to the market.

BUTTER:

Price could go either way -- buyers may be ready to take advantage of the lower price or sellers may want to reduce supply prior to the end of the year. It will be difficult for price to regain the losses of the week, but volatility will be evident through the end of the year. Butter stocks gaining on last year according to the Cold Storage report may be a bit negative to the market.




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