Friday, December 30, 2022

Friday Morning Dairy Market Update - Two-Sided Trading Activity Expected

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: Mixed
Soybean Futures: 11 to 14 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures: $5 to $7 Higher
Wheat Futures: Steady to 2 Lower

MILK:

There is sufficient milk available for demand. Bottling is increasing as school accounts need to be replenished next week. Milder weather has improved cow comfort, keeping milk output above year ago levels. Lower milk volumes will be moving to manufacturing as bottling increases. The increase of underlying cash is impacting nearby futures contracts but having little impact on later contracts. Traders anticipate price declines moving into the first quarter of 2023. Supply may be higher than demand, which could increase inventory of dairy products more than desired. This would keep price lower for a longer period. Class IV milk prices are expected to decline as further weakness is expected in butter. USDA will release the November Agricultural Prices report Friday, providing the average prices used in calculating income over feed for the Dairy Margin Coverage program. Markets will be closed on Monday and will reopen Tuesday morning.

Cheese prices look to be closing out the year better than expected. Prices have been increasing over the past two weeks. Block price may end the year about in the middle of the range it has traded in throughout the entire year. Demand has been good and may remain that way early next year even though overall food prices are high, and consumers change some of their eating habits. There is concern over the level of demand after the holidays with more cheese moving to inventory.

BUTTER:

Price may coast through the end of the year with little interest in doing business. However, weakness is expected to continue as time moves forward. Last year, price moved substantially higher through the end of the year and into the first part of 2022. This year it is moving in the opposite direction as escalating prices this year have done the job of slowing demand and spurring production.



Wednesday Closing Dairy Market Update - Milk, Cheese Trading Strong; March Dairy Exports Decline

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