Wednesday, October 26, 2022

Wednesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Further Price Weakness Expected

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: Steady to 5 Lower
Class IV Milk Futures: Steady to 5 Lower
Butter Futures: 1 to 2 Lower

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 1 to 2 Higher
Soybean Futures: 7 to 9 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures: $2 to $3 Higher
Wheat Futures: 4 to 6 Higher

MILK:

Milk futures may continue to struggle as support to underlying cash may be waning. The activity of cash cheese over the past week has not been supportive with further weakness possible. Historically, there is strength during the month of October, which results in some of the highest prices of the year. However, the peak had been reached earlier this year as there was concern over milk supply later in the year. The fear of lower milk supply has not materialized and is actually moving in the other direction as milk production has exceeded the previous year over the past three months. Demand is being satisfied without difficulty, leaving buyers unconcerned over supply. This has eliminated the need for buyers to be aggressive on the daily spot market. This does not mean prices will continue to fall through the end of the year, but may continue the pattern of price increases being short lived.

CHEESE:

It is possible cheese prices may decline below $2.00 yet this week. Buyers are not aggressive on the daily spot market due to sufficient supply being available in the country.

BUTTER:

Price is not expected to fall significantly anytime soon, but it is also expected to see limited upside potential. High prices are having an impact on demand along with some consumers already having purchased supply ahead of time to avoid the talked about shortage that could develop. Churns have sufficient cream available but many struggle with having sufficient employees to increase production.



Monday Closing Dairy Market Update - October Cheese and Butter Inventories Declined

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