Tuesday, October 25, 2022

Tuesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Traders Show No Reaction to Inventory Report

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 3 to 4 Lower
Soybean Futures: Steady to 2 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures: $1 to $2 Higher
Wheat Futures: 5 to 8 Lower

MILK:

The September Cold Storage report did not influence overnight trading as no activity was seen. The report was neutral to slightly bearish with traders feeling comfortable where they are with their positions. Barrel pride declining to the same level as blocks has traders searching and waiting for further price direction. With the recent major dairy reports being neutral to bearish, there is little reason to believe there will be much upside price potential for the foreseeable future. Milk supply is sufficient for bottling and manufacturing leaving buyers unconcerned over supply through the end of the year. Trading activity is expected to be limited unless there is a substantial price change in underlying cash.

CHEESE:

Demand may have slowed for barrel cheese which may move price back below blocks. This may be more positive from an industry standpoint, but it is not necessarily supportive to prices. Buyers remain able to purchase supply from regular channels reducing their need to come to the spot market.

BUTTER:

There is continued talk of a butter shortage. The cold storage report indicates that will not be the case as there is still sufficient supply in inventory. The inventory draw in September was rather light with a decrease of only 11.0 million pounds. High price may be having an impact. If there was a real fear of a butter shortage, butter price would not be at the current level, but would be substantially higher as the market would want to slow demand.




Monday Closing Dairy Market Update - October Cheese and Butter Inventories Declined

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