Monday, October 31, 2022

Monday Morning Dairy Market Update - Higher Overnight Trade May Not Hold

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: Steady to 5 Higher
Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed
Butter Futures: Steady to 1 Lower

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 12 to 16 Higher
Soybean Futures: 8 to 12 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures: $1 to $3 Higher
Wheat Futures: 40 to 50 Higher

MILK:

Milk futures may have a difficult time moving higher even if there is a bounce in underlying cash. The cash market is reflecting what is taking place out in the country. There is little to get excited about at the present time. Some buying of futures may take place as some look at a correlation between corn price and milk prices. This may be the reason for higher milk futures overnight as traders try to take advantage of market emotion. The larger picture indicates prices may have some difficulty increasing for any duration of time. USDA will release the September Agricultural Prices report on Monday, providing the average prices used in calculating income over feed used in the Dairy Margin Coverage program.

CHEESE:

Prices have been trending lower following a somewhat seasonal pattern. There is some disbelief over the recent weakness as the market has moved into the strong demand period of the year. However, buyers have already been preparing for this period over the past two months. When looking at the movement of cheese prices, it is clearly seen that a seasonal price increase has taken place since September and may have reached its peak.

BUTTER:

Price continues to hold well, but it may have a difficult time moving higher through the rest of the year. Inventory is not increasing, but supply seems to be available for demand. Some churns have been increasing output as they can as cream has become more available. Prices may remain choppy this week.




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