Thursday, August 25, 2022

Thursday Closing Dairy Market Update - Milk Futures Post a Strong Close

MILK

Milk plants indicate a slight increase in milk receipts in the Central Region. Cooler weather is improving cow comfort and feed intakes. Most of the rest of the country is still struggling with some hot weather and reduced milk production. That will change as time moves forward and Fall weather arrives. However, that certainly does not mean milk production will exceed the level of last year as it will need to improve at the same pace or greater as seasonal production increase takes place. Spot loads of milk in the Central Region are running from $3.00 lower to $1.00 higher than class. Even with milk moving from the region to the Southeast and East, there remains discounted milk available. USDA released the July Livestock Slaughter report which reports the number of dairy cattle slaughtered during the month. There were 230,100 dairy cattle slaughtered in July. This was a decrease of 2,900 head from June and a decrease of 17,800 head from July 2021. Cows are potentially being held onto longer due to there being fewer replacements available. The criteria for holding onto a cow may have changed from when replacements were plentiful.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES

3 Month: $20.16
6 Month: $20.66
9 Month: $20.60
12 Month: $20.53

CHEESE

There is quite a bit of variation to demand across the country. Some plants indicate a slight increase of demand for cheese while others say demand has slipped recently. Some of this may be variety specific. Be that as it may, demand is reported to be lighter than previous years. The economy is having an impact on demand overall as consumers are struggling with higher prices of everything. One thing that is beneficial at this time of year is football season. That generally increases demand for cheese and other dairy products.

BUTTER

Price seems to be establishing another higher range. How long buyers will remain as aggressive as they have beenis unclear, but with inventory 21% below a year ago, the market should remain supported. Demand for butter has remained nearly steady the past few weeks, but year-to-date volumes are beginning to lag a year ago. However, buyers are not shy about purchasing at the current price level as they feel downside potential is limited.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY

September corn declined 8.25 cents ending at $6.5750. September soybeans declined 8.25 cents closing at $15.52.50 with September soybean meal down $9.70 per ton closing at $458.00. September wheat fell 25.25 cents closing at $7.6975. August live cattle declined $0.22 closing at $141.10. October crude oil declined $2.37 closing at $92.52 per barrel. The DOW gained 323 points closing at 33,292 while the NASDAQ gained 208 points closing at 12,639.




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