Monday, August 1, 2022

Monday Morning Dairy Market Update - Overnight Trade Shows Solid Gains

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: 20 to 30 Higher
Class IV Milk Futures: 10 to 15 Higher
Butter Futures: 2 to 3 Higher

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 12 to 15 Lower
Soybean Futures: 15 to 25 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures: $3 to $5 Lower
Wheat Futures: 10 to 15 Lower

MILK:

Higher overnight trade with unusually high volume makes one wonder whether someone knows what will take place on the cash market today. It is unusual to see significant price movement either up or down with significant volume. Usually, bid and offers are placed rather wide apart, leaving limited trading activity. This does provide hope of strong underlying cash prices Monday. However, there is no way of anticipating what spot prices will do. Hot weather may have significant impact on milk output this week, reducing supply at a time when more milk will be moving to deficit areas as bottlers prepare for schools reopening.

CHEESE:

The strength of cheese prices Friday with the nearest offers being about 5 cents higher may indicate further upside potential Monday. Buyers have been able to purchase cheese without having to chase the market as sellers have remained aggressive. That may change if milk supply tightens, and demand improves. Traders seem to anticipate a possible change of trend.

BUTTER:

With supply and demand balanced, price may remain in the range it has been in over the past couple months. There has been a large volume of butter purchased on the spot market for a number of weeks, which could leave buyers in a less-aggressive position in the future. Lower butter output leaves inventory lower than a year ago. Steady demand may reduce that inventory further.




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