Friday, August 12, 2022

Friday Morning Dairy Market Update - Mixed Trading Activity Anticipated

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures: Steady to 10 Higher
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: Mixed
Soybean Futures: 5 to 8 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures: Mixed
Wheat Futures: 8 to 10 Lower

MILK:

Strength in the market more than a couple of days has one wondering if the market is changing. Buyers of cheese have not been aggressive for some time with price increases limited to about two days. It leaves us wondering when the axe will fall again and futures will plummet. Milk supply is not tight and even with more milk moving to deficit areas as preparation is being made for the reopening of schools, sufficient milk is expected to remain available. Spot milk supply will tighten with prices likely to move in line with class or even command a premium, but that is a seasonal event. The World Agricultural Supply and Demand report will be released Friday, providing USDA's estimates for milk production, milk prices and dairy product prices for this year and next year. The report will contain grain production and ending stocks estimates, having an impact on feed prices.

CHEESE:

The recent strength of cheese prices might continue if seasonal buying is taking place. If prices increase much further, buyers that have been holding and purchasing on price declines and on an as-needed basis might come off the sidelines to purchase before prices increase further. This may move prices higher as they try to outbid each other. However, the uncertainty of demand may limit the aggressiveness.

BUTTER:

Price is expected to remain in the sideways range. Tighter cream supply and labor shortages have some plants selling some of their cream supply rather than trying to utilize all of it. This may keep supply from building and may even result in further inventory decline. However, reduced demand may leave supply and demand balanced.




Monday Closing Dairy Market Update - October Cheese and Butter Inventories Declined

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