MILK
Class III milk futures fell taking back much of what was gained late last week. The weakness was greater than underlying cash would suggest but it continues to show the bearishness of the market. One would think there would be a greater bounce that would take place in the market at some point, but current market fundamentals may make that difficult to achieve. USDA released the World Agricultural Supply and Demand report today which was slightly bearish to the grain complex, but prices fell as selling erupted pushing prices substantially lower. The report contains their estimates for milk production, milk prices, and production prices as well as some other information. USDA did reduce their estimate for milk production this year to 226.0 billion pounds, down 400,000 pounds from the June estimate. This would result in production below 2021 and the first time production would fall below the previous year in quite some time. The surprise was the reduction of milk production for next year by one billion pounds. Their current estimate is for production next year at 228.3 billion pounds. The estimate for Class III milk price is year was reduced $0.10 per cwt to an average of 22.80. Next year, the price was raised $0.20 to an average of $20.85. The Class IV price was raised $0.05 this year to $24.70 and raised next year to $22.30, a gain of $0.40 from the June estimate. The All-milk price was reduced $0.05 this year to an average of $26.15 and raised $0.35 next year to $24.15. Although the increase of price next year was positive, they would still be significantly below the estimates for this year.
AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES
| 3 Month: | $21.80 |
| 6 Month: | $21.89 |
| 9 Month: | $21.39 |
| 12 Month: | $20.98 |
CHEESE
Spot cheese prices held well today but that was not sufficient to stem the selling tide. The fact is that prices have not been able to rally or even establish a trend higher. USDA reduced their estimate for the average cheese price this year by a penny to $2.1850 but increased the estimate next year by 2 cents to an average of $2.07. Dry whey price was left unchanged this year at 64 cents and reduced next year to 51.50 cents, down 0.50 cents from the June estimate.
BUTTER
Butter price was raised this year by 1.50 cents to an average of $2.78 and raised next year by 5.50 cents to an average of $2.44 per pound according to the report. Nonfat dry milk price was left unchanged this year at $1.7550 and raised 2.50 cents next year to an average of $1.6450 per pound.
OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY
JJuly corn fell 48.50 cents closing at $7.3275. July soybeans fell 48.25 cents ending at $15.9275 with July soybeans meal down $4.20 per ton closing at $478.70. July wheat fell 42.25 cents closing at $8.0150. August live cattle gained $0.52 ending at $136.67. August crude oil fell $95.84. The DOW declined 193 points ending at 30,981 while the NASDAQ declined 108 points ending at 11,265.
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