Friday, July 29, 2022

Friday Morning Dairy Market Update - Demand Concerns Abound

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed
Butter Futures: 1 to 2 Lower

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 6 to 8 Higher
Soybean Futures: 25 to 30 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures: $4 to $7 Higher
Wheat Futures: 15 to 20 Higher

MILK:

There is no way of predicting price movement Friday. Based on what took place Thursday, it is a strong possibility further weakness could develop. However, the decline of spot prices Thursday could stimulate some buying interest in the spot market. Milk supply is not burdensome with spot milk availability tightening. However, there is no concern over a tightening market, leaving buyers comfortable purchasing on an as-needed basis. Class III milk futures fell below the recent sideways trading pattern that seemed to provide support. The weakness may leave buyers on the sidelines Friday. USDA will release the June Agricultural Prices report Friday afternoon, providing average prices used in the calculation of income over feed for the Dairy Margin Coverage program.

CHEESE:

The large decline of cheese prices Thursday does not bode well for the market. It is surprising that lower prices have not increased buying interest. However, with some having already purchased cheese earlier in the year for later demand and current demand uncertainty leaves them sidelined for the time being. Buying is aggressive on the spot market when orders need to be filled and not to purchase for anticipated demand.

BUTTER:

Butter continues to fair better than cheese, which is a bit surprising. Demand seems to have slowed more for butter than cheese, but support remains due to lower inventory than a year ago. A slower churning pace keeps supply in line with demand and price in the $2.90 to $3.00 range, where it has been since the beginning of June.




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