Friday, July 22, 2022

Friday Morning Dairy Market Update - June Cold Storage Report This Afternoon

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: 5 to 15 Lower
Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 4 to 6 Lower
Soybean Futures: 1 to 4 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures: $2 to $3 Lower
Wheat Futures: 24 to 28 Lower

MILK:

Class III milk futures saw further pressure develop after the release of USDA's Milk Production report Thursday. The report showed milk production increasing from the previous year for the first time this year. Milk production per cow up 20 pounds compared to a year ago and cow numbers increasing 4,000 head from the previous month indicates a change in trend. Overnight trade reflected the pressure late Thursday, but it was confined to the nearby months. Current offers in Class III futures seem to indicate the bearish report has already been factored in. However, the June Cold Storage report will be released Friday and may add to the bearishness if it is similar to the May report. There also is a bi-annual Cattle Inventory report being released, but that is not expected to have impact.

CHEESE:

There is concern over the inventory of cheese that will be seen on the June Cold Storage report Friday. Total cheese inventory on the May report showed a record amount in storage. We may see the same for the month of June. Demand certainly has not fallen off the face of the earth, but there are indications it has slowed, which may result in more moving to storage.

BUTTER:

Price continues to remain surprisingly strong with quite a bit of activity taking place in the spot market. Exports continue to remain strong but may slow due to the U.S price being significantly above the world price. Inventory is expected to show an increase from May, but likely will not show any gain on a year-over-year basis.




Thursday Morning Dairy Market Update - Follow-Through Strength Expected

OPENING CALLS: Class III Milk Futures: 10 to 20 Higher Class IV Milk Futures: 4 to 8 Higher...