Monday, February 28, 2022

Monday Morning Dairy Market Update - Overnight Trading Activity Shows No Direction

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 20 to 25 Higher
Soybean Futures: 20 to 45 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures: $5 to $8 Higher
Wheat Futures: 45 to 60 Higher

MILK:

Overnight trading activity only took place in the March contract with price unchanged from Friday. Wide bids and offers were placed with no interest in changing those. Traders are uncertain of what to do based on the underlying spot price action on Friday. The market is trying to anticipate milk prices with optimism stemming from the recent milk production report and a correlation between milk and higher corn prices with the level of demand. Income over feed will only be a part of determining profitability. Other goods such as fuel, labor, parts, etc. are all escalating in price as well and may continue to do that with the current world situation. Price movement will be uncertain in dairy futures until some direction is seen in underlying cash. USDA will release the January Agricultural Prices report Friday afternoon, providing average prices for the month used in calculating income over feed for the Dairy Margin Coverage program.

CHEESE:

The significant weakness of cheese on Friday was a surprise after it was anticipated they would increase as a result of the milk production report showing a contracting milk supply. That may have a greater influence as the year progresses, but buyers may have sufficient product on hand for the time being leaving them less aggressive.

BUTTER:

The price decline on Friday was a surprise as buyers were expected to be aggressive in their quest to increase ownership of butter for later demand. However, inventory increasing in January indicates sufficient supply for demand and then some. Buyers have already been purchasing for second quarter demand moving them much further ahead than previous years.




Tuesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Limited Trade Activity Expected

OPENING CALLS: Class III Milk Futures: 2 to 5 Lower Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed ...