Wednesday, January 12, 2022

Wednesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Traders Cautious Over Cash

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: 5 to 10 Lower
Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed
Butter Futures: Steady to 2 Lower

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: Mixed
Soybean Futures: 4 to 6 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures: $2 to $4 Lower
Wheat Futures: 2 to 5 Lower

MILK:

Traders are very bullish on milk futures and continue to buy aggressively. This eliminated the losses of last week with new highs again being established. We have not seen this kind of strength since May and June of 2020 after the Farmers to Families Food Box program was announced and the markets took off with cheese eventually moved to new highs. We have not seen anything as such in the market other than good solid demand. This is taking place at a time when the nation's dairy herd has been contracting. This strength will not continue indefinitely but will continue as long as buyers of underlying cash products want to increase ownership. Milk supply is not short, but it is not overwhelming either. Production will not increase much in the near term as farmers hold current cow numbers determining what their next step is. USDA will release the World Agricultural Supply and Demand report Wednesday providing their estimates on milk production, milk prices and product prices for the year. The Quarterly Grain Stocks report will also be released.

CHEESE:

Based on what block cheese price did Tuesday, it is likely further gains will be seen Wednesday. However, steady barrels and the weakness seen last week could move this market into a choppy price pattern. Cheese production has been steady with cheese supply available to the market. Buyers are purchasing for upcoming demand and to rebuild aging programs.

BUTTER:

Price continues to reach for the sky with buyers not even blinking at the increasing price. They continue to purchase as fear of yet higher prices dominates the market. The last time we saw a price move like this was back in 2015 when butter moved to a record high




Tuesday Closing Dairy Market Update - Milk Futures Close Under Pressure

MILK Class III milk futures saw substantial price swings from overnight trade to the closing of the day trade. Traders took advantag...