Thursday, January 20, 2022

Thursday Morning Dairy Market Update - Milk Futures Indicate Further Pressure

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: 8 to 15 Lower
Class IV Milk Futures: 4 to 8 Higher
Butter Futures: 1 to 2 Higher

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: Steady to 2 Lower
Soybean Futures: 3 to 5 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures: Steady to $1 Higher
Wheat Futures: 4 to 6 Lower

MILK:

Milk futures are taking a breather after the recent strong increase. The recent weakness of cheese prices has tempered the bullishness for the time being. There has been some indication of slowing cheese orders, but that may be the result of buyers having purchased supply ahead for expected upcoming demand leaving them less aggressive now. There has been some indication of expansions taking place, but nothing widespread, and heifer supply is tighter. Cow prices are increasing as farms look for replacements. This will not change the market overnight and may not change the market much at all for a period of time. Milk is available for bottling and manufacturing with some milk moving between regions to satisfy the demand of deficit areas. Milk output is steady in most areas with a few areas indicating an increase of production.

CHEESE:

The general consensus is that the current weakness of cheese prices may be temporary. Buyers have been aggressive for a few weeks as they purchased supply ahead for orders and for first quarter expected demand. Buyers needs seem to have now been satisfied for the time being with purchasing settling down to an as-needed basis to fill orders. Lower prices may spur increased buyer interest for rebuilding aging programs and for anticipated extended needs.

BUTTER:

Butter price turned with a vengeance as buyers need to purchase butter to fill both domestic and international demand. Price is higher than world price making it less attractive to the export market. However, world supply is tight, and buyers are paying the higher price in order to ensure supply is available when needed. Buyers are willing to purchase and store even at these higher prices. They see limited downside risk.OPENING CALLS:




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