Thursday, January 13, 2022

Thursday Morning Dairy Market Update - Strong Buying Interest Remains in Complex

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: 5 to 10 Higher
Class IV Milk Futures: 5 to 10 Higher
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: Mixed
Soybean Futures: 7 to 9 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures: $3 to $4 Lower
Wheat Futures: 4 to 6 Lower

MILK:

Milk futures are practically straight up after the break of a week ago. It is uncertain as to how much this market can increase without beginning to impact demand. The market is moving to a level at which buying interest may slow but has not yet discovered that level. Milk production is steady across much of the country with little adverse weather to impact reasonable cow comfort. The magnitude of the increase of both Class III and Class IV futures is generally met with a large price retracement. Prices generally decline faster than they increase but so far there is no reason to believe it will decline anytime soon. There seems to be no negative impact in the supply chain from the surge of COVID-19. The impact is that buyers are purchasing ahead of time to make sure they have product when they need it.

CHEESE:

Cheese prices are somewhat similar to a tag team. One day blocks increase while barrels hold. The next day barrels increase while blocks hold. Any weakness has been short lived as buyers view it as an opportunity to increase ownership of supply. Buyers are concerned over supply even though milk prices are escalating. It may not be enough to increase milk production due to high expenses.

BUTTER:

The weakness in butter Wednesday is not expected to last very long. Butter is in demand at whatever the cost. Bulk supply is tight. Export demand remains very strong. Nonfat dry milk price continues to push higher supporting Class IV futures.




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