Tuesday, November 23, 2021

Tuesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Traders to Exercise Caution Prior to Spot Trading

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: 4 to 10 Lower
Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 2 to 3 Lower
Soybean Futures: 5 to 8 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures: $1 to $2 Lower
Wheat Futures: Mixed

MILK:

Milk futures tried to make a run higher early Monday is anticipation of further gains of cheese and butter. However, barrels showed weakness and butter falling back below $2.00, dealt a blow to expectations. The bearish implications for the cheese market due to the increase of American cheese stocks may have a bearish influence on futures prior to spot trading as traders remember what happened after the September Cold Storage report. Milk production had again declined during October reducing milk supply compared to the previous year, but American cheese inventory continued to increase. The current lower trend for milk production looks as if it will continue based on the previous three months. Increasing feed prices and other costs for producing milk will have an impact on milk production.

CHEESE:

Traders will remain cautious prior to spot trading. It had been another bullish Milk Production report but another bearish Cold Storage report. Traders will be looking over their shoulders remembering what happened after the September Cold Storage report. The strong increase of cheese prices last week could have set up a similar scenario as last time with a potential void under the market.

BUTTER:

Cold storage was friendly to the market with a large decline of inventory in October moving supplies down 13% from September and 6% below a year ago. This should be supportive to the market, but it may not push price much higher in the near term.




Friday Closing Dairy Market Update - A Strong Close to the Week for Dairy Market

MILK Milk futures had an incredible week with Class III futures ending with the June through October contracts moving above $19.00. ...