Monday, November 29, 2021

Monday Closing Dairy Market Update - Fears of Demand Destruction Tempered

MILK

Both Class III and Class IV futures were lower today but did not fall as much as overnight activity indicated. Steady to higher cheese prices eased some of the uncertainly, but traders remain cautious about the level of demand through the end of the year and the continued unfolding news surrounding the new COVID-19 variant. Economic fears subsided somewhat as President Joe Biden indicated there would be no shutdowns to areas of the economy and encouraged more people to receive the COVID vaccinations and booster shots. More of the movement for the market may be the level of demand that will be seen through the end of the year. Milk production has been increasing relative to the low levels of the late summer, but overall milk production has declined due to the heavy culling of cows. There is sufficient milk for both bottling and manufacturing with no shortage anywhere. Spot milk price is higher than usual during this time of year, indicating that milk supply is not or will not be burdensome. Tomorrow is the last trading day for November futures and options. USDA will release the October Agricultural Prices report tomorrow.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES

3 Month: $18.91
6 Month: $18.47
9 Month: $18.56
12 Month: $18.60

CHEESE

Cheese plants received greater milk supplies during the holidays and were able to handle the extra milk without difficulty. Even with that, spot milk was available at $2 under class to even with class. This extra milk was welcomed by many plants as they were able to increase production to meet demand. Delays continue to be noted for hauling and shipping which has hindered some sales to some extent. Retail outlets have compensated for this by ordering ahead of their usual order times in order to make sure they have sufficient production on the shelves for the holidays.

BUTTER

Cream supply had been tight, but it seems to be loosening a bit as we move toward December. Some plants are operating at capacity in order to meet demand and to build inventory. Other plants are leaving output a bit lighter and have opted to sell some cream at higher prices rather than increasing production. Strong demand continues to reduce inventory.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

December corn fell 5.75 cents, closing at $5.81. January soybeans fell 11.25 cents, closing at $12.4150, with December soybean meal down $8.50 per ton to close at $347.70. December wheat fell 18 cents, ending at $8.0750. December live cattle fell $1.17, closing at $136.92. January crude oil gained $1.80, closing at $69.95 per barrel. The Dow gained 237 points closing at 35,136 while the NASDAQ gained 291 points closing at 15,783




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