Friday, November 5, 2021

Friday Morning Dairy Market Update - Higher Demand May Not Mean Higher Prices

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures: Steady to 5 Higher
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 1 to 2 Higher
Soybean Futures: 3 to 6 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures: $1 to $2 Lower
Wheat Futures: 2 to 4 Higher

MILK:

Strength was seen in most 2022 Class III futures contracts. Later contracts have not been affected as much as earlier contracts. There may be significant changes in the market over the next few months either for the good or bad. Milk production continues to improve seasonally but is running near the same level as last year. Milk supply remains sufficient for all needs with manufacturing absorbing most of it with cheese production strong. Slowly increasing milk production is offsetting some of the decrease of production per cow and heavier culling. The wave of culling prior to the end of the year may have run its course as farms will now work with what they have and concentrate on increasing production efficiency. Traders will be cautious prior to spot trading and will wait for underlying price direction.

CHEESE:

The unfilled bids under spot barrels Thursday could provide an indication that buyers feel price has fallen to a level of value giving current supply. Price may hold at the current lower level for a period of time and may not see a large rebound. Cheese demand is good, but inventory still remains larger than a year ago.

BUTTER:

Butter remains poised to regain the recent loss and push higher again. Both retail and restaurant demand continues to improve. Fresh production is being supplemented with inventory. Lower butter output in September should continue to provide support to price as that trend likely continued through October.




Friday Closing Dairy Market Update - September Milk Production Report to be Released Monday

OVERVIEW: Milk futures did not change much today due to limited price movement in the spot market. Class III futures were slightly h...