Tuesday, August 3, 2021

Tuesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Sufficient Supply Pressures Prices

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: 4 to 8 Lower
Class IV Milk Futures: Steady to 5 Higher
Butter Futures: 1 to 2 Higher

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 2 to 5 Lower
Soybean Futures: 8 to 12 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures: $1 to $3 Lower
Wheat Futures: 2 to 4 Lower

MILK:

Class III milk futures remain under pressure as weakness continues in the cheese complex. Both the August and September contracts are nearing the $16.00 level and the possibility of falling into the $15.00's. Strong milk production keeps manufacturing plants busy, which is providing sufficient supply of dairy products to the market. Buyers are looking ahead to upcoming demand but have not needed to be aggressive as supplies are readily available at lower prices. Milk production continues to keep processing facilities full. Tuesday is the last day to trade July futures and options with the Federal Order prices to be announced Wednesday.

CHEESE:

A few weeks ago, the information was that barrel supply was tightening and that the market was not reflecting the fact that some suppliers were informing their buyers that orders later this year might be cut as there may not be sufficient supply. That certainly has not been the case as barrels are the weakest of the dairy complex. Sellers continue to offer barrels on the spot market aggressively looking for buyers at whatever price they can get. The weakness leaves buyers holding back waiting for lower prices.

BUTTER:

The increase of butter prices certainly does not indicate a change in trend. It was likely only the result of buyers being more aggressive. Tuesday, there may be limited buying interest again. Butter production has slowed, but there is sufficient in inventory keeping demand satisfied. The trend remains down, and it may take a significant increase in demand to change that direction.




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