Friday, July 30, 2021

Friday Morning Dairy Market Update - Milk Futures Due For a Bounce

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed
Butter Futures: Steady to 1 Lower

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 3 to 5 Lower
Soybean Futures: 5 to 10 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures: Mixed
Wheat Futures: 5 to 7 Lower

MILK:

The pressure on Class III futures has been relentless as traders have little hope of price increases anytime soon. Manufacturers have been surprised and a bit concerned that milk supplies have remained as strong as they have so far this summer. Spot milk prices show larger-than-usual discounts for this time of year, indicating plentiful milk supply. Feed supply and prices are widely variable across the country. This may eventually have an impact on milk supply unless crop yields turn out better than expected. Good quality dairy hay is likely to be the feed that may be difficult to find and will command a high price. USDA will release the June Agricultural Prices report on Friday, providing the prices used in calculating income over feed for the Dairy Margin Coverage program.

CHEESE:

The question is whether block cheese holding steady will pull barrel cheese price higher or if the weakness of barrels will pull blocks lower. Prices are at reasonable levels, at which buyers may step up to purchase ahead for upcoming demand. However, the volume of cheese available continues to leave buyers complacent and purchasing supplies as needed.

BUTTER:

There is indication butter exports are strong, but that has not caused concern that supply will tighten anytime soon. Some manufacturers are reducing production by selling cream to manage inventories. Price is expected to grind lower.




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