Thursday, June 17, 2021

Thursday Morning Dairy Market Update - Selling Pressure May Continue

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 14 to 18 Lower
Soybean Futures: 16 to 22 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures: $1 to $2 Lower
Wheat Futures: 6 to 9 Lower

MILK:

After a week of price consolidation, Class III milk futures have resumed their downtrend with a vengeance. July fell below $17.00 Wednesday, unable to find support from underlying cash. Milk production continues strong but has been affected by recent hot weather. The impact has not been enough to change overall milk production. USDA will release the May Milk Production report Friday, which is expected to show strong milk production compared to a year ago. Grain futures are taking a beating with overnight prices down significantly due to a better chance for rain in a large area of the Corn Belt.

CHEESE:

Block cheese is going nowhere and barrels are having a difficult time trending higher. Barrel price is falling back into the sideways trading range it has been in for the past month. Buyers have no concern over supply, which leaves them purchasing as sellers continue to move product at lower prices. This trend is not expected to change anytime soon.

BUTTER:

Butter exports have been phenomenal, but that has not translated into stronger prices. Price has been able to stay at the current, elevated level. With sufficient cream supplies available, churns have been able to produce sufficient butter for domestic and international demand. Price is expected to remain near the current level for the foreseeable future. The market seems balanced for now.



 

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