Tuesday, April 20, 2021

Tuesday Morning Diary Market Update - Grain Prices Provide Underlying Support

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: Steady to 5 Higher
Class IV Milk Futures: 5 to 10 Higher
Butter Futures: Steady to 1 Higher

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 3 to 6 Higher
Soybean Futures: 12 to 20 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures: $3 to $4 Higher
Wheat Futures: 4 to 6 Higher

MILK:

Class III futures are trying to regain the losses of last week. May through July futures closed back above $19.00 reacting from the strength of underlying cash. The front-month April contract may not move very much other than adjusting for the weekly AMS prices. May is beginning to be priced but is wide open to react to the movement of underlying cash. Milk plants report increasing milk receipts as spring flush gears up. So far, increasing milk production is being absorbed with the discounted price of spot milk holding well. Increasing grain prices continue to be a concern and provides underlying support to the market. The Global Dairy Trade auction take place Tuesday.

CHEESE:

Price may be developing a higher trading range, but the market will need more time to solidify that trend. Fundamentals do not suggest a continued increase of prices as we move through spring flush. However, overall strong demand in the market might limit inventory growth. Cheese buyers might be near their price threshold.

BUTTER:

Price is holding well as both retail and restaurant demand remains strong. Exports continue to run well above last year. Churning has been active, but is slowing due to a tighter cream supply. Ice cream production is absorbing more cream pushing cream prices higher. There may be a point at which plants may limit production and sell cream due to a good price, but that may be limited due to continued strong demand for butter. Price is expected to be choppy.




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