Wednesday, March 24, 2021

Wednesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Milk Futures May Move Cautiously Lower

Opening Calls:

Class III Milk Futures: Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures: Steady to 5 Higher
Butter Futures: Steady to 1 Higher

Outside Market Opening Calls:

Corn Futures: 1 to 2 Lower
Soybean Futures: 2 to 4 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures: $1 to $3 Higher
Wheat Futures: 1 to 4 Lower

Milk:

There is no real new news in the dairy complex. Milk futures have been slowly eroding as underlying cash has not provided support. Milk receipts are increasing at the plant level leaving sufficient supply to meet all areas of demand. Milk production is higher than last year and expected to remain that way for the foreseeable future. Feed prices are high, but that has not deterred farmers from pushing milk production. Plants are full in many cases, but most are still able to handle increasing milk supplies. Tuesday, USDA announced they awarded $11.5 million for research "to help ensure America's small and medium-sized farms become more profitable and improve the quality of life in American farm communities." The press release reported that "USDA's National Institute of Food and Agriculture (NIFA) awarded 24 grants to 20 universities and organizations through their Agriculture and Food Research Initiative (AFRI), the nation's leading and largest competitive grants program for agricultural sciences." This is not just strictly for dairy, but all areas of agriculture. It will have no impact on market prices directly.

Cheese:

Cheese prices are expected to continue to show weakness but may find a level at which business will be done and prices will more sideways. Demand for fresh cheese is being satisfied with some plants reporting curd demand has slowed a bit. Buyers are less aggressive with less trading being done on the daily spot market due to the ability of obtaining needed supplies out in the country through regular channels.

Butter:

Price has been supported holding the gains from February and early March. Exports are doing well increasing the movement through the market rather than rapidly building inventory. Demand from the food service industry has been strong but seems to have leveled off for now. Price will remain choppy.




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