Wednesday, March 3, 2021

Wednesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Strong Support Holds Prices

Opening Calls:

Class III Milk Futures:Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures:Mixed
Butter Futures:2 to 3 Lower


Outside Market Opening Calls:

Corn Futures:3 to 6 Lower
Soybean Futures:3 to 7 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures:$1 to $2 Lower
Wheat Futures:4 to 8 Lower


Milk:

July through December Class III futures made new contract highs Tuesday. June through November closed at $18.00 or above as optimism increased. May moved above $18.00, but closed slightly below. The large increase of prices on the Global Dairy Trade auction indicates there is strong global demand for dairy and U.S. prices are competitive. An improved milk price outlook will keep milk production aggressive and higher than a year ago. The limiting factor may be manufacturing capacity. USDA will release the February Federal Order class prices Wednesday. The trade expects a Class III price of $15.65 and a Class IV price of $13.28.

Cheese:

Block cheese has shown minor strength this week while barrels have been steady. What is more positive is that prices are holding, indicating solid support under the market. Government purchasing for food programs is ongoing helping to keep product moving rather than building inventory. Restaurant business is slowly increasing, which is improving orders from the food service industry.

Butter:

Price has been surprisingly strong since the beginning of February with price moving back to the highest level since July 27, 2020. There is concern price may have moved too far, too fast. A price move of this magnitude over such a short period of time often does not hold. However, it can also be said that it may have fallen too far and is now correcting. There is plenty of butter available, but buyers apparently want new crop, fresh butter and are aggressively seeking it.




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