Thursday, March 11, 2021

Thursday Closing Dairy Market Update - USDA Extends Free School Lunch Program

Milk:

Class III milk futures were able to regain the losses of Wednesday and then some in some contracts. Buyers of cheese continue to remain aggressive, but not on a daily basis. It has not been taking much to move the market higher. There is caution in the market, but there is also optimism. How far prices can increase with milk production growing and manufacturing increasing is a question that will only be answered over the next few months as spring flush unfolds. The idea that increasing restaurant demand will push demand for dairy higher may not necessarily be correct if more meals are again consumed away from home, it means that less are being consumed at home with the result being that increased food service demand may be offset somewhat by less retail demand. USDA announced earlier this week they are extending waivers that allow children to receive free nutritious meals when schools are not in session this summer. This was initially to end June 30 but has now been extended through Sept. 30. Each of the free meals is to contain one cup of milk for the breakfast menu. The lunch or supper menu contains one cup of milk and may also contain 2 ounces of cheese or some other protein sources, but cheese does not need to be a staple part of it. At least milk is a staple of this program.

Average Class III Prices:

3 Month: $17.65
6 Month: $17.99
9 Month: $18.10
12 Month: $17.96

Cheese:

Cheese demand this week has improved compared to last week in some cases. There is an increase in demand stemming from the food service industry. Spot offers of milk are reported to be plentiful with plants regularly receiving phone calls offering loads. However, discounts have not been quite as deep as they had been for a period of time. Retail demand has been steady but is expected to decrease as restaurant demand improves. The weekly Cold Storage report shows an increase of 1% for cheese inventory for the first 10 days of the month.

Butter:

Price just could not push higher and break above the previous high. The slight decline Thursday does not have much impact on the overall market, which seems to be well supported. Food service demand has improved and retail sales have increased as consumers prepare for the Passover/Easter season. Weekly cold storage shows an increase in inventory of 1% for the first 10 days of the month.

Outside Markets Summary:

March corn gained 7.25 cents, closing at $5.55. March soybeans gained 4 cents, ending at $14.1550 with March soybean meal falling $8.10 per ton, closing at $402.00. March wheat fell 14.50 cents, ending at $6.3625. April live cattle slipped $0.25, ending at $118.52. April crude oil jumped $1.58, closing at $66.02 per barrel. The DOW closed 189 points higher at 32,486 while the NASDAQ gained 330 points, closing at 13,399.




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