Thursday, February 18, 2021

Thursday Morning Diary Market Update - Traders Uncertain of Cash Direction

Opening Calls:

Class III Milk Futures: Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures: 5 to 10 Higher
Butter Futures: 1 to 2 Higher

Outside Market Opening Calls:

Corn Futures: 2 to 4 Lower
Soybean Futures: 3 to 7 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures: $1 to $3 Lower
Wheat Futures: Steady to 3 Higher

Milk:

Class III milk futures have been holding well considering the weakness of underlying cash cheese. Traders continue to keep premium in the market in anticipation of support being found and prices eventually trending higher. Some support is coming from the strong dry whey price as it offsets some of the weakness of cheese. Adverse weather continues across the path of the storm continuing to delay milk pickup and deliveries. That is being worked through and should not have much impact on overall milk volumes and production. It has also had an impact on demand as many are without electricity and are confined at home. There will be an increase in demand for dairy products once people can get out and back to a normal.

Cheese:

The decline of cheese prices Wednesday was a surprise to many as it was anticipated that buyers would be more aggressive at lower prices. More loads were traded Wednesday, but that was due to offers being lowered. Buyers are willing to purchase as sellers reduce prices. Overall cheese production is strong as milk is available. Spot milk remains available at very attractive prices.

Butter:

Butter is trending higher with an impressive gain over the past week or so. This strength has lasted longer than the pattern of price bounces since July. Price generally increased two to three days and then quickly fell back to continue the downtrend. This is different as buyers have remained aggressive despite large inventory. Export interest has increased due to continued strength of price on the Global Dairy Trade auction. World demand is increasing, and the U.S. price is substantially lower making it attractive to international buyers.




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