Thursday, February 25, 2021

Thursday Morning Dairy Market Update - Markets Take Reports in Stride

Opening Calls:

Class III Milk Futures: Steady to 5 Higher
Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed
Butter Futures: Steady to 1 Lower

Outside Market Opening Calls:

Corn Futures: 2 to 4 Lower
Soybean Futures: 8 to 12 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures: $2 to $4 Higher
Wheat Futures: Steady to 4 Lower

Milk:

There should be some follow-through buying by traders due to the strong close Wednesday and the fact that cheese price is not weakening. However, a choppy cash market will continue to make a choppy futures market. It may be difficult to get an uptrend going under the current market situation. Milk production continues to add more supply to the market that will satisfy demand and build inventory. February milk futures are basically priced and March is struggling to hold onto a higher price. Prices have been slowly eroding, which may bring it close to the February price as we move through March. USDA will release the January Livestock Slaughter report Thursday. The report will not be a market mover but should show the continued desire to hold cow numbers.

Cheese:

The overall fundamentals of the cheese market remain unchanged. Production is strong, keeping supply readily available for demand. Cheese futures show optimism with prices currently expected to reach $1.81 per pound. This is a far cry from what took place last year, but there is a lot of year remaining. A strong world price may move cheese price higher if export demand increases.

Butter:

Even though price has weakened recently, much of the substantial increase over the previous few weeks has been maintained. This may be the result of strong butter exports during the month. Food service demand is also showing signs of growth. However, inventory still has grown, according to the weekly Cold Storage report from selected surveyed warehouses. The report shows stocks for the month of February have increased 5%.




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