Thursday, February 11, 2021

Thursday Morning Dairy Market Update - Futures Gain Despite Weaker Cash

Opening Calls:

Class III Milk Futures: 15 to 25 Higher
Class IV Milk Futures: Steady to 5 Higher
Butter Futures: Steady to 1 Higher

Outside Market Opening Calls:

Corn Futures: Mixed
Soybean Futures: 4 to 6 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures: $1 to $2 Higher
Wheat Futures: 4 to 6 Higher

Milk:

Class III milk futures traded higher after the CME posted settlements for the day Wednesday. This indicated futures would trade higher overnight and that certainly was the case. March through July contracts posted double-digit gains. There was no announcement from the USDA about any new program. It seems that it may be just a matter of interest in purchasing futures on the idea that downside is limited with greater potential for higher prices over time. Current fundamentals might suggest futures may remain choppy for a period of time as traders have a desire to buy in anticipation of higher prices due to what took place last year, but fundamentals may not support similar patterns.

Cheese:

The weakness of blocks Wednesday and the low bids placed for barrels makes a strong potential for further weakness. Retail demand remains strong with some reporting increased sales. There is anticipation of increasing food service demand, but that may likely be a slow increase. A slow increase is better than no increase. An increase in restaurant usage may offset some retail demand, leaving overall demand little changed.

Butter:

Price may have found a level of support and may trade near the current level for a period of time. Traders are optimistic, keeping substantial premium in futures throughout the year. The February contract is about 8 cents above underlying cash, which would require higher price over the next three weeks. Summer contracts are near $1.75.




Friday Midday Dairy Market Summary - Butter and Cheese Prices Bounce

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY: CORN: 6 Higher SOYBEANS: 15 Higher SOYBEAN MEAL: ...