Monday, February 22, 2021

Monday Morning Dairy Market Update - Uncertain Price Direction

Opening Calls:

Class III Milk Futures: Steady to 5 Higher
Class IV Milk Futures: 5 to 10 Higher
Butter Futures: 1 to 3 Higher

Outside Market Opening Calls:

Corn Futures: 3 to 5 Higher
Soybean Futures: Steady to 4 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures: $1 to $2 Lower
Wheat Futures: 2 to 5 Higher

Milk:

The market has absorbed and adjusted to the weather impact of last week. There was some milk dumped in those areas hardest hit, but the loss was minimal for the overall market and confined to a small area. Trading in milk futures may be slow to get going after the weekend with little news to provide market direction. The cold weather is now behind in most areas, which will thaw things out again and improve cow comfort. Milk production is expected to rebound to levels it was prior to the adverse weather.

Cheese:

There is no telling where cheese could go Monday. The price charts are not friendly with blocks remaining at a low price despite the increase Friday. I will take quite a bit of fundamental change to cause price to trend higher. Hopefully, cheese prices may be low enough to increase demand.

Butter:

Butter has been strong, resulting in price being able to finally move above cheese prices. Export demand has increased providing some of the support. Large inventory is expected to a lid on the extent of the price increase. USDA will release the January Cold Storage report Tuesday, providing an idea of the level of inventory currently on hand.




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