Wednesday, January 27, 2021

Wednesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Futures Take a Breather

Opening Calls:

Class III Milk Futures: Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed
Butter Futures: 1 to 2 Lower

Outside Market Opening Calls:

Corn Futures: 6 to 8 Higher
Soybean Futures: 8 to 15 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures: Mixed
Wheat Futures: 2 to 5 Higher

Milk:

Milk futures may take a breather Wednesday after the large declines seen Tuesday in both Class III and Class IV futures. However, a bounce higher regaining those losses is not likely anytime soon. The bearish implications of growing inventory already in December as well as strong milk production indicates supplies will be plentiful. But, as we have seen last year, the market can change rather quickly as volatility is expected to be substantial again this year. We much keep in mind that volatility can take place both ways. Price increased substantially a few times last year and then fell back. Volatility can also mean prices could moves substantially lower and then come back as well. There is hope that enough people will be vaccinated against COVID-19 allowing life to return to some sort of normalcy. This would improve regular consumer demand rather than a large portion of demand being reliant on government purchasing.

Cheese:

Barrels may have found a level at which buyers are comfortable purchasing more aggressively. Price may not move much higher, but at least there may be support. Blocks do not seem to share that same sentiment. Weakness still prevails. The large decline of dry whey price Tuesday may indicate at turn of trend as buyers may have sufficient product for the time being.

Butter:

The market is in serious trouble. Price moved back to the level of early May and only 18 cents from the extreme low in April when all nonessential businesses were closed. We are not in that situation Wednesday, but inventories have increased to substantial levels. Price continues in the downtrend that began in early July. 




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