Wednesday, January 20, 2021

Wednesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Milk Futures Under Significant Pressure

Opening Calls:

Class III Milk Futures: 20 to 70 Lower
Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed
Butter Futures: Mixed

Outside Market Opening Calls:

Corn Futures: 5 to 10 Lower
Soybean Futures: 18 to 26 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures: $7 to $10 Lower
Wheat Futures: 8 to 14 Lower

Milk:

Class III futures took a beating Tuesday and it was expected there would be some follow-through selling in the February contract due to the pool of offers remaining at the end of the day. It was not expected to trade as bearishly as it did overnight through the June contract. February has been hit the hardest, falling as much as 93 cents at one point. Futures are correcting to the underlying cash as traders had to face the reality of underlying cheese prices. Cheese prices may not remain under pressure, but milk futures needed to correct. Global Dairy Trade auction results may have been a bit negative due to cheddar being the only category the showed a slight decline. USDA announced the approved contractors for the fifth round of the Farmers to Families Food Box program yesterday. Deliveries will begin shortly and will continue through the end of April

Cheese:

There was strong trading activity in cheese futures overnight with February through April showing substantial losses. The strength of cheese prices has not been what the trade had anticipated since late last year. There was much emphasis put on price following a similar pattern as last year, creating much optimism and volatility. So far, the trend has been almost completely opposite. I expect the market to be choppy.

Butter:

The jump in butter Tuesday will likely see some follow-through Wednesday to some extent. There were unfilled bids remaining under the market that my want to be filled Wednesday. However, the jump of price Tuesday may increase the desire of sellers to step back up to the plate and take advantage of the price increase to offer product at a much better price. The price increase may be short-lived as has been the pattern for quite some time.




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