Thursday, January 21, 2021

Thursday Morning Dairy Market Update - Traders Wait for Further Direction

Opening Calls:

Class III Milk Futures: Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed
Butter Futures: 1 to 2 Higher

Outside Market Opening Calls:

Corn Futures: 3 to 7 Higher
Soybean Futures: 4 to 11 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures: $1 to $3 Higher
Wheat Futures: 3 to 6 Higher

Milk:

Class III futures have experienced a massive decline over the past two weeks. This movement was magnified as traders initially believed milk prices were going to move significantly higher early this year as demand increased for government food programs. This idea put a substantial amount of premium in the market. Government programs will purchase large amounts of cheese and other dairy products, but there are also more supplies available than there were during periods of time last year. USDA will release the December Livestock Slaughter report Thursday. The report is anticipated to show continued decline of slaughter compared to the previous year. The current outlook for milk prices will keep cow numbers large and barns full.

Cheese:

The weakness of cheese may continue Thursday due to prices declining on little activity with offers remaining at the close of spot trading Wednesday. Prices might be moving to levels that could increase buyer interest, but that will depend on whether those buyers will need to come to the spot market or whether they will be able to purchase needed supplies through regular channels in the country.

Butter:

If the pattern of the past six months remains intact, the increase of price may run its course Thursday or Friday and fall back. Price is trying to hold in a sideways trading range. Government demand for food programs may be able to keep price in the range. However, that will not be without choppy price movements as business is done on a daily basis. The December Cold Storage report will be released on Monday, which is expected to show inventory quite a bit higher than a year earlier.




Thursday Closing Dairy Market Update - Global Dairy Trade Slips 0.1%

MILK Traders did not have solid price direction, yet trading activity was large in the May contract with 1,610 contracts traded. The...