Friday, January 29, 2021

Friday Morning Dairy Market Update - Traders Uncertain of Price Direction

Opening Calls:

Class III Milk Futures: Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed
Butter Futures: Steady to 1 Lower

Outside Market Opening Calls:

Corn Futures: 4 to 8 Higher
Soybean Futures: 8 to 14 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures: $2 to $4 Higher
Wheat Futures: 4 to 6 Higher

Milk:

Trading may be light and mixed prior to spot trading. Milk futures have held the past two days, but underlying cash has not been able to support a higher price trend. Hope for a repeat of last year's strong prices as a result of the Food Box program, has virtually been eliminated. Increased buying of dairy products has been met with higher supply, reducing the need for buyers to come to the spot market aggressively. Continued strong milk production should keep the market sufficiently supplied. USDA will release the December Agricultural Prices report Friday afternoon. This report provides the average prices used for calculating income over feed. A Dairy Margin Coverage payment is expected due to the substantial rise of grain prices in December compared to the decline of the All-milk price.

Cheese:

Based on the price action seen this week, further weakness of cheese is expected Friday. If prices bounce, it may be only temporary as there is little to suggest aggressive buyer interest. The increase of trading activity in barrels Thursday with price still declining, does not bode well for the near term.

Butter:

One has to wonder just how low price will need to move in order to increase demand sufficiently to reduce supply. The decline of price since July has not been enough to accomplish the task. In fact, supply has increased steadily in comparison to the previous year throughout that whole period of time. That is not likely to change anytime soon. Further weakness is expected.




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