Tuesday, December 1, 2020

Tuesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Traders Exercise Caution

 Opening Calls:

Class III Milk Futures:Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures:Mixed
Butter Futures:Mixed

Outside Market Opening Calls:

Corn Futures:2 to 4 Higher
Soybean Futures:5 to 8 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures:$1 to $3 Higher
Wheat Futures:2 to 4 Higher

Milk:

Milk futures are struggling. December Class III futures nearly reached $15.00 Monday making another new low. This is the lowest close since April 6th. January closed below $16.00 for the first time since Aug. 21. It has been another prime example of how the market declines faster than it increases. Further weakness of cheese could push the December price near the contract low set on March 31st of $14.59. COVID-19 cases are again surging just as they were back at that time when the country was being shut down. This is a similar correlation as the virus is surging again and more restrictions are being placed in numerous areas of the country on businesses and gatherings. Another two companies are asking the FDA for approval of a vaccine. There is much hope for a vaccine to allow the world to move back to some form of normality, but it will take a while before this may happen. The calendar has turned to December and the market is entering a time of year during which much of the holiday demand has been met and general demand slows. This will keep prices under pressure. Tuesday is the last day to trade November dairy futures and options. That makes it surprising that November showed the most trade overnight due to it being a cash-settled contract.

Cheese:

The turn of cheese prices Monday is likely to continue to show weakness again Tuesday. Sellers may become more aggressive as they desire to move more product. A bounce is being viewed as a selling opportunity. It is a buyers' market as they can place lower bids and purchase supplies for filling orders and rebuilding aging programs. Cheese is readily available for demand.

Butter:

The strength of butter price has likely run its course if the pattern holds that has been prevalent for quite some time. Any price bounce has been viewed as a selling opportunity and those bounces generally last about two-to-three days. Butter production is active with plentiful cream supply. Inventory continues to grow relative to last year.


#completecalfcare


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